This paper lists every fact used in the article "The Dying Lifeline Under Texas." Each bracketed number in the article is a row below. Each entry gives the figure as stated, the source, a direct link, and how it was checked. Entries marked TAP calculation are arithmetic on the cited sources and show the method. Every entry was checked against the primary record (agency, court, company or statute) on September 7, 2026; entries corrected during that check say so in the Check column. Water-level readings are as of September 6, 2026.
Units: 1 acre-foot (AF) = 325,851 gallons = 1,233.5 cubic meters. 1 cubic foot per second (cfs) for one year ≈ 724 AF.
A. Comanche Springs and the springs of Texas
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comanche Springs peak flow | 66 cfs (1,900 L/s), measured June 23, 1899 | Texas State Historical Association, Handbook of Texas: Comanche Springs; Brune, Major and Historical Springs of Texas, TWDB Report 189 (1975) | https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/comanche-springs · https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publications/reports/numbered_reports/doc/R189/R189.pdf | Fetched; TSHA gives 1,900 L/s (= 67 cfs); USGS/Brune convention is 66 cfs |
| 2 | Decline began with irrigation wells; flow ceased | Decline from May 1947; ceased March 1961; irrigated ~6,200 acres | Same as 1 | Same | Fetched |
| 3 | Spring returns each winter when irrigation pumps shut off; pumping needed for year-round flow | 26,000–35,000 AF/yr regional pumping sustains a 10 cfs minimum | Texas State University, Study examines whether Fort Stockton can reclaim title as "Spring City" (2021); Meadows Center, Comanche Springs Restoration | https://news.txst.edu/research-and-innovation/2021/fort-stockton-study.html · https://www.meadowscenter.txst.edu/research/water-conservation/comanche-springs-restoration.html | Fetched |
| 4 | 1975 survey of major springs; number already failed | 281 springs described; 63 failed (+2 inundated) | Brune, TWDB Report 189 (1975), read in full | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publications/reports/numbered_reports/doc/R189/R189.pdf | Fetched |
| 5 | Brune's explanation of spring failure | Water levels drawn down "as much as 700 feet"; gaining streams turned losing; "thousands of small springs have dried up" | Same as 4, "Effects of Man" | Same | Fetched; direct quotation |
| 6 | Share of Brune's springs dry, then and now; cumulative pumping | 11% dry (1981) → 30% (2024); cumulative Texas groundwater production ~250 → ~700 million AF | Meadows Center, Revisiting the Major and Historical Springs of Texas (Mace & Galaviz, Feb 2024) | https://www.meadowscenter.txst.edu/research/environmental-flows/revisiting-major-historical-springs.html | Fetched |
B. Where Texas water comes from
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Statewide water use and groundwater share | ~15.0 million AF in 2023; groundwater 56%, surface 41%, reuse 3% | TWDB, 2023 Texas Water Use Estimates Summary | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/waterplanning/waterusesurvey/dashboard/2023%20Texas%20Water%20Use%20Estimates%20Summary.pdf | Fetched |
| 8 | San Antonio's Edwards share | 60% of SAWS supply from the Edwards (2025) | San Antonio Water System, Water Supplies / Management Sources | https://www.saws.org/your-water/management-sources/ | Fetched |
| 9 | Lubbock's groundwater share | 61% groundwater / 39% surface water in 2025 (Ogallala via the Roberts County and Bailey County well fields; Lake Alan Henry and Lake Meredith); 64% / 36% in 2021. The city's 2025 Strategic Water Supply Plan reports a drought-year 2022 mix of ~77% groundwater (surface water ~25% of supply since 2017), so the share swings with the lakes | City of Lubbock, 2025 Water Quality Report (Consumer Confidence Report, PWS TX1520002); City of Lubbock, 2021 Water Quality Report; City of Lubbock, 2025 Strategic Water Supply Plan, Section 4 | https://www.mylubbock.us/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/363 · https://ci.lubbock.tx.us/storage/images/BeY3qnt1vVUXQ6pnvCk8fYAqIVE8syPmi1dZcKqS.pdf · https://www.mylubbock.us/DocumentCenter/View/9756/2025-Lubbock-Strategic-Water-Supply-Plan | Fetched Sept 10, 2026 (CCRs) and Sept 7, 2026 (plan). Article uses the CCR figure, "about sixty percent" |
| 10 | El Paso's groundwater share | ~55% groundwater in a normal year; Rio Grande supply shrinking as Elephant Butte falls | Texas Tribune, Toilet to tap: El Paso… (Apr 10, 2025); El Paso Inc., By the numbers (2025) | https://www.texastribune.org/2025/04/10/el-paso-texas-water-crisis/ · https://www.elpasoinc.com/news/local_news/by-the-numbers-where-el-paso-gets-its-water/article_503b196d-eeb3-4e6d-977e-51412db054a4.html | Fetched |
| 11 | Bryan–College Station groundwater dependence | Essentially 100% Carrizo-Wilcox (Simsboro) | Texas Tribune, Texas cities square off over aquifer pipeline projects (Mar 31, 2025); Brazos Valley GCD | https://www.texastribune.org/2025/03/31/texas-water-pipeline-dispute-georgetown-bryan-college-station-aquifer/ · https://brazosvalleygcd.org/files/?id=12360&upf=dl | Fetched |
| 12 | Edwards Aquifer population served | ~2.5 million people | TWDB, Edwards (Balcones Fault Zone) Aquifer | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/aquifer/majors/edwards-bfz.asp | Fetched |
C. The decline, aquifer by aquifer
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ogallala water-level change, Texas | −44.1 ft area-weighted, predevelopment (~1950) to 2019; largest single-well decline in the High Plains, 265 ft, is in Texas | USGS, Water-Level and Recoverable Water in Storage Changes, High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2019, SIR 2023-5143, Table 2 and Summary | https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2023/5143/sir20235143.pdf | Fetched; independently re-verified |
| 14 | Ogallala storage lost, Texas | −169.6 million AF recoverable storage, predevelopment to 2019 | Same, Table 3 | Same | Fetched; re-verified |
| 15 | Ogallala pumping, Texas | 4,432,262 AF in 2019; 93.6% irrigation | Texas Comptroller, Texas Water Tour: Aquifers — Snapshot (TWDB 2019 use by aquifer) | https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/economic-data/water/2022/aquifers-snap.php | Fetched; re-verified |
| 16 | Ogallala recharge | On the order of 1 million AF/yr for the Texas footprint: GMA 2 modeled precipitation recharge 679,308 AF/yr plus GMA 1 at 0.1–0.8 in/yr; TWDB cites ~0.5 in/yr through playas | GMA 2, Explanatory Report for Desired Future Conditions (2021); TWDB, Ogallala Aquifer | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/dfc/docs/2021/GMA2_DFCExpRep_2021.pdf · https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/docs/OgallalaAquifer.pdf | Fetched; TAP calculation for the statewide total |
| 17 | Statewide reservoir capacity (for comparison to 14) | 31.56 million AF of conservation capacity | TWDB, Water Data for Texas — statewide reservoirs | https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide | Fetched Sept 6, 2026 |
| 18 | Fort Worth artesian wells in 1890; decline since | Water level 90–100 ft above land surface in 1890; ~850 ft of decline in the Trinity at Fort Worth; ~450 ft Paluxy, ~400 ft Woodbine near Dallas by 1990; flowing wells ceased by 1914 | Mace, Dutton & Nance, Water-Level Declines in the Woodbine, Paluxy, and Trinity Aquifers of North-Central Texas (1994) | https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/abstracts/html/1994/gcags/abstracts/1468.htm · https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275832849 | Fetched; re-verified |
| 19 | Declines over 1,000 ft along I-35 | "More than 1,000 feet in water level declines over the last 130+ years" | GMA 8, Desired Future Conditions Explanatory Report | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/dfc/docs/GMA8_DFCExpRep.pdf | Fetched; re-verified |
| 20 | Houston subsidence | Up to 10 ft (3 m) at Baytown by 1979; other sources 12–13 ft; heads down 300–400 ft in the core | Turco et al., A Century (1906–2024) of Groundwater and Land Subsidence Studies in Greater Houston Region, Groundwater (2025); Texas Living Waters | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12271985/ · https://texaslivingwaters.org/groundwater/subsidence-houston-galveston-region/ | Fetched; re-verified |
| 21 | Katy still subsiding | 2.64 cm/yr (1.04 in/yr), 2021–2025, benchmark P029 | Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, 2025 Annual Groundwater Report — public hearing presentation (Apr 2026) | https://hgsubsidence.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2025-HGSD-AGR-Public-Hearing-Presentation.pdf | Fetched; re-verified |
| 22 | Hill Country Trinity decline rates | Median 2.3 ft/yr (5-yr) across 35 active GMA 9 recorder wells; 4–6 ft/yr in Kendall, Hays, Kerr; 12 wells at record depth in 2025–26 | TAP calculation from TWDB automated recorder records downloaded Sept 6–7, 2026 (well pages at /groundwater/well/<state well number>) | https://waterdatafortexas.org/groundwater | Computed; method in WS12 brief |
| 23 | Hays County wells at historic lows; curtailment | 100% of monitored wells below historic lows (Mar 2026); 40% curtailment | Hays Trinity GCD; KUT (Mar 26, 2026) | https://haysgroundwater.com/hays-trinity-groundwater-conservation-district-enacts-40-drought-curtailment-2/ · https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2026-03-26/hays-county-tx-wells-aquifer-levels-drought-water-access-quality | Fetched |
| 24 | Jacob's Well historic flow and cessations | 6.1 cfs measured Aug 5, 1924 (≈2,700 gal/min); average ~4 cfs; first cessation in recorded history 2000; dry again 2008–09, 2011, 2013, 2022, 2023, and zero-flow days in every year since through 2026 (continuous Oct 29, 2025–Apr 30, 2026) | Brune, TWDB Report 189 (1975), Jacob's Well entry; Hays Trinity GCD, Groundwater Management Zones; Hays County Parks; USGS gage 08170990 daily discharge | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publications/reports/numbered_reports/doc/R189/R189.pdf · https://haysgroundwater.com/management-special-study-zones/ · https://www.hayscountytx.gov/446/Learn-More-About-Jacobs-Well · https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/08170990/ | Fetched Sept 7, 2026; the popular "23 cfs / six feet in the air" figure is not in the primary record and was dropped |
| 25 | Edwards recharge, 2020–2024 vs drought of record | 2020–24 mean 177,000 AF/yr; 1952–56 mean 168,200 AF/yr; long-term mean 677,000 | USGS, Estimated Annual Recharge to the Edwards Aquifer in the San Antonio Area, 1934–2024 (data release) | https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/67dc2a99d34eae450ac1c397 | Fetched; TAP calculation of period means from the data file; re-verified |
| 26 | Comal Springs 2025 | Annual mean 83.7 cfs, lowest since 1956; ceased for 144 days in 1956 | TAP calculation from USGS gage 08168710 daily records | https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08168710/ | Computed; re-verified |
D. The state's plan
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 2027 State Water Plan adoption and core figures | Adopted July 23, 2026; supply 15.5 → 14.0 million AF/yr (2030–2080) "primarily due to depletion of aquifers"; needs 3.6 → 5.8 million AF/yr; $174 billion (2023 $); seawater desalination 3.7% of 2080 strategy supply; damages $91 B/yr (2030) → $177 B/yr (2080) | TWDB, 2027 State Water Plan — Water for Texas; TWDB press release | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/waterplanning/swp/2027/docs/SWP27-Water-For-Texas.pdf · https://texaswaternewsroom.org/pressreleases/2026-7-23_2027_swp_approved.html | Fetched; re-verified |
| 28 | Hill Country planned drawdown | GMA 9 desired future condition: ~30 ft average Trinity drawdown, 2008–2060 | TWDB, GAM Run 21-014 MAG (GMA 9); GMA 9 DFC summary | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/docs/GAMruns/GR21-014_MAG.pdf · https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/dfc/docs/summary/GMA9_DFC_2021.pdf | Fetched; re-verified |
| 29 | High Plains management rule | GMA 1: 50% of 2010 storage remaining over each 50-year period (40% in Dallam/Hartley/Moore/Sherman) | TWDB, GMA 1 Desired Future Conditions | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/management_areas/dfc_mag/GMA_1_DFC.pdf | Fetched |
E. Israel
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Israel's drought and decision | Severe drought 1998–2002; 2000/01 shortfall of 500 million m³ in one year and a cumulative natural-reservoir deficit of ~2 billion m³; Government Resolution 4895 (Mar 1999) to begin seawater desalination; first BOT tender (Ashkelon) July 25, 2000; Resolution 1682 (Apr 4, 2002) set a ~400 million m³/yr program. Ashkelon, Palmachim, Hadera, Sorek built and run by private consortia on 25-year BOT/BOO contracts; Ashdod built by state-owned Mekorot | Knesset Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry on the Water Sector, Final Report (June 2002); Israel Water Authority, Sea Water Desalination in Israel (Tenne, 2010); World Bank, Water Management in Israel (2017) | https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/mmm/me00530.pdf · https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/water-authority-data-english/he/12-Desalination-in-Israel.pdf · https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/657531504204943236/pdf/Water-management-in-Israel-key-innovations-and-lessons-learned-for-water-scarce-countries.pdf | Fetched Sept 7, 2026; corrected from a single "2002 decision" to the 1999–2002 sequence |
| 31 | Share of Israel's municipal water from desalination | Over 80% of domestic urban water (OECD 2023; World Bank 2017: 85%); ~596 million m³ in 2022 = 33% of all freshwater supplied (State Comptroller 2024); 39% of total national supply in 2018 (Water Authority) | OECD, Environmental Performance Reviews: Israel 2023; State Comptroller of Israel, Regulation of Seawater Desalination Facilities (Nov 2024); Israel Water Authority (Zaide, Feb 2025) | https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2023/05/oecd-environmental-performance-reviews-israel-2023_7d20073c/0175ae95-en.pdf · https://library.mevaker.gov.il/sites/DigitalLibrary/Documents/2024/2024.11-75A-PartB/EN/2024.11-75A-PartB-301-Hatpala-Taktzir-EN.pdf | Fetched Sept 7, 2026; corrected from 86% (no primary source states it) |
| 32 | Sea of Galilee withdrawals | Pumping exceeded 500 million m³ in peak years (1997–98: 515; 2003–05: 542–627, Water Authority balance table) and fell to tens of millions of m³/yr after 2014 (18–50 million m³/yr; 2020: 221 in a wet year); since early 2023 Mekorot has reversed the National Water Carrier to pump desalinated water into the lake | Israel Water Authority, The Kinneret Watershed (Table 3); Mekorot, National Carrier Flow Reversal Project; Ynet (Jan 2021, reporting Water Authority/Mekorot figures) | https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/generalpage/water-authority-info/he/13-Israel-Water-Sector-Lake-Kinneret-watershed.pdf · https://www.mekorot-int.com/blog/project/national-carrier-flow-reversal-project/ · https://www.ynet.co.il/environment-science/article/HkhcLFV0D | Fetched Sept 7, 2026; the earlier "513 (2001–02) → 25 (2018–19)" pairing came from a 2019 news report and conflicts with the Water Authority's own table for 2001–02 (237); replaced |
| 33 | Refilling the Sea of Galilee with desalinated water | Began Oct 23, 2025; ~1,000 m³/hour via the Tsalmon Stream | Times of Israel, In world first, Israel begins pumping desalinated water into depleted Sea of Galilee (Nov 2025) | https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-world-first-israel-begins-pumping-desalinated-water-into-depleted-sea-of-galilee/ · https://www.mekorot-int.com/blog/project/national-carrier-flow-reversal-project/ | Fetched; re-verified; Mekorot states the carrier-reversal works became operational in early 2023, first water into the lake Oct 2025 |
| 34 | Cost of Israeli desalinated water | Sorek B contracted at $0.4005/m³ (≈$494/AF) | ILDesal; IDE Technologies | https://ildesal.org.il/sorek-b-desalination-plant/ · https://ide-tech.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SOREK-II-2022-.pdf | Fetched |
| 35 | Cost of San Antonio's imported groundwater | Vista Ridge: $1,606/AF raw-water price locked for the 30-year term; ~$2,200/AF all-in including pipeline O&M, power and treatment ($111.3 million budgeted for 2026 for up to 50,000 AF/yr); 142 miles from Burleson County | San Antonio Water System, 2026 Adopted Budget, "Vista Ridge – Regional Water Supply" (p. 32) and O&M summary (p. 67) | https://apps.saws.org/who_we_are/financial_reports/budget/docs/2026_SAWS_Adopted_Budget_20260518.pdf | Fetched Sept 7, 2026; replaces the 2020 advocacy-sheet estimate |
F. The requirement
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Texas coastline | 367 statute miles of general coastline; 3,359 miles of tidal shoreline | NOAA, The Coastline of the United States (NOAA/PA 71046, rev. 1975); NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Shoreline Mileage of the United States | https://shoreline.noaa.gov/link/Coastline_of_the_US_1975.pdf · https://coast.noaa.gov/data/docs/states/shorelines.pdf | Fetched Sept 7, 2026 |
| 37 | Statewide annual offset requirement | 4,742,500 AF/yr = 1.545 trillion gal/yr = 6,551 cfs; Ogallala 3,400,000 AF/yr = 72% | TAP calculation: sum of eight zone overdrafts (pumping minus recharge where both are published, otherwise pumping in the sub-areas still declining), from sources 13–16, 25 and the WS12 zone brief | WS12 brief and zones.json in the project folder | Method and each zone's basis in WS12; arithmetic re-verified |
| 38 | Requirement for the seven refillable zones | ~1.34 million AF/yr ≈ 437 billion gal/yr | TAP calculation: 37 minus the Ogallala | Same | Computed |
| 39 | Scale comparison | Central Arizona Project: 336 miles, ~1.4–1.5 million AF/yr, 2,900 ft cumulative lift | Central Arizona Project; USBR | https://www.cap-az.com/about/history-of-cap/ · https://www.usbr.gov/projects/index.php?id=504 | Fetched (WS7) |
| 83 | Ocean volume against Texas water use | Ocean volume ≈ 1.335 billion km³ (321 million cubic miles) ≈ 1.08 × 10¹⁵ AF; Texas use ≈ 15 million AF/yr (row 7); ratio ≈ 72 million years | NOAA National Ocean Service, How much water is in the ocean?; TAP calculation | https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/oceanwater.html | Computed Sept 10, 2026; fetch the NOAA page before publishing |
G. Making the water
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Seawater desalination energy | Modern plants 3–3.5 kWh/m³ whole-plant; theoretical minimum ~1 kWh/m³ | World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Desalination; Wikipedia, Desalination (energy section, citing IEA) | https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/industry/nuclear-desalination · https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desalination | Fetched |
| 41 | Power per unit of water; reactor match | ~49–63 MW continuous per 100,000 AF/yr; a 300 MWe plant ≈ 500,000–700,000 AF/yr of RO | TAP calculation from 40 (3.5–4.5 kWh/m³ × 1,233.5 m³/AF) | — | Arithmetic in WS5 brief |
| 42 | First advanced reactor construction | TerraPower Natrium: NRC construction permit March 4, 2026; nuclear construction began April 23, 2026 | POWER Magazine | https://www.powermag.com/terrapowers-kemmerer-1-enters-construction-timeline-of-the-natrium-projects-road-to-first-power/ | Fetched; re-verified |
| 43 | Texas coastal reactor project | Dow/X-energy Long Mott (Seadrift): four Xe-100 modules, 320 MWe; NRC environmental finding May 18, 2026; final safety evaluation targeted Nov 2026 | POWER Magazine; NRC project page | https://www.powermag.com/nrc-clears-long-motts-environmental-review-on-a-faster-path-another-milestone-for-commercial-advanced-nuclear/ · https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/advanced/who-were-working-with/applicant-projects/long-mott | Fetched; re-verified |
| 44 | NRC licensing rule and timeline mandate | Part 53 final rule April 3, 2026; Executive Order 14300 sets 18-month decisions on new reactor applications | American Nuclear Society; Federal Register | https://www.ans.org/news/article-7881/nrc-unveils-part-53-final-rule/ · https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/05/29/2025-09798/ordering-the-reform-of-the-nuclear-regulatory-commission | Fetched; re-verified |
| 45 | Texas nuclear office and fund | HB 14 (2025): Texas Advanced Nuclear Energy Office; $350 million fund | American Nuclear Society (Apr 2026) | https://www.ans.org/news/2026-04-09/article-7920/texas-opens-350m-in-nuclear-funding/ | Fetched; re-verified |
| 46 | Existing floating nuclear plant | Akademik Lomonosov, Pevek, Russia: two KLT-40S units, 70 MWe gross / 64 MWe net; first grid connection Dec 19, 2019; commercial operation May 22, 2020; still the only operating floating nuclear plant (China's ACPR50S listed as planned; Russia's Baimskaya units in fabrication) | IAEA Power Reactor Information System, units 895 and 896; World Nuclear Association, China country profile | https://pris-stats.iaea.org/reactor/reactor-by-id/895 · https://pris-stats.iaea.org/reactor/reactor-by-id/896 · https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power | Fetched Sept 7, 2026 |
| 47 | Federal agreement on offshore reactors | Marine Minerals Administration–NRC memorandum of understanding, July 22, 2026 | WorkBoat | https://www.workboat.com/offshore/marine-minerals-nuclear-regulators-sign-mou-on-potential-offshore-reactor-projects | Fetched; re-verified |
| 48 | Existing Gulf infrastructure | 68 structures in federal waters off Texas; ~19,100 miles of Gulf pipeline decommissioned in place | TAP calculation from BOEM/MMA platform and pipeline raw data files (downloaded Sept 6, 2026) | https://www.data.boem.gov/Main/RawData.aspx | Computed; method in WS4 brief |
| 49 | Texas offshore desalination permit track | Water Code §18.003: intake ≥3 miles offshore and ≥20,000 mg/L TDS needs no water-right permit; §18.005: discharge >3 miles offshore is notice-and-comment only; bay/estuary discharge barred on that track | Texas Water Code Ch. 18 (HB 2031, 2015) | https://texas.public.law/statutes/tex._water_code_section_18.003 · https://texas.public.law/statutes/tex._water_code_section_18.005 | Fetched |
| 50 | Corpus Christi desalination plant rejected | Council rejected 6–3 (Sept 2025) and 5–3 (Sept 1, 2026); state commitment ~$757 M; opposition centered on bay brine discharge | Texas Tribune (Sept 1, 2026); Bond Buyer | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/01/corpus-christi-water-desalination-plant-city-council-vote-texas/ · https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/corpus-christi-rejects-desalination-project-again | Fetched; re-verified |
| 80 | Brine and offshore discharge | SWRO concentrate ≈ 65–70 ppt from 35 ppt feed at 50% recovery (about twice seawater); modern outfalls use multiport high-velocity diffusers for rapid near-field dilution; Port of Corpus Christi Harbor Island basis of design: intake ~1.3 miles offshore with velocity caps ≤0.5 ft/s, discharge via a 3.1-mile offshore tunnel; Texas Water Code §18.005: no contested-case hearing for a Gulf discharge more than three miles offshore | Port of Corpus Christi, Harbor Island desalination technical memorandum (Feb 2023); Texas Water Code ch. 18 (2015); WS6 §4 | https://texas.public.law/statutes/tex._water_code_section_18.005 | Fetched Sept 2026 (WS6); add the Port TM link |
| 81 | Total power for the statewide requirement | Path A (replace all 4.74 million AF/yr): 4,562 MW continuous, 5,069 MW nameplate at 90% capacity factor, ≈ 17 units of 300 MWe; Path B (replace 1.24 million AF/yr of municipal and industrial pumping, retire 3.5 million AF/yr of irrigation): 864 MW continuous, ≈ 3 units | TAP calculation from `metrics.json` (desalination 3.5 kWh/m³ + lift 1.366 kWh per AF-ft on each zone's route and elevation) | — | Computed Sept 7, 2026 |
H. Putting it back and stopping the pumping
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | Empty reservoirs | Twin Buttes 5.8% full and Choke Canyon 23.1% (Sept 6, 2026); Medina Lake record low 1.9% (May 21, 2025) | TWDB, Water Data for Texas reservoir pages | https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/twin-buttes · https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/choke-canyon · https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/medina | Fetched Sept 6, 2026 |
| 52 | San Antonio aquifer storage | SAWS H2Oaks: ~154,919 AF stored (May 2024); 29 wells; 60 MGD recovery | TWDB, Aquifer Storage and Recovery Facts | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/innovativewater/asr/facts.asp | Fetched |
| 53 | El Paso aquifer recharge | >92,000 AF (30 billion gal) of reclaimed water recharged since 1985 | El Paso Water, Aquifer Recharge | https://www.epwater.org/our-water/water-resources/aquifer-recharge | Fetched; re-verified |
| 54 | Edwards paid-forbearance model | VISPO: 41,795 AF enrolled; $54/AF standby, $214/AF in forbearance years; SAWS leases 50,000 AF/yr at $100/AF for storage | Edwards Aquifer Authority, Flow Protection Measures | https://www.edwardsaquifer.org/edwards-aquifer-habitat-conservation-plan/conservation-measures/flow-protection-measures/ | Fetched |
| 55 | Arizona precedent | 1980 Groundwater Management Act passed after Interior Secretary Andrus (1977) tied Central Arizona Project allocations and construction to a state groundwater law; grandfathered irrigation rights (land irrigated 1975–80); no new irrigated land inside Active Management Areas; 100-year assured water supply for new subdivisions | Arizona Department of Water Resources, AZ's Groundwater Management Act of 1980 and Overview of the Arizona Groundwater Management Code; Univ. of Arizona WRRC, Arizona Water Resources (Apr–Jun 1980) | https://www.azwater.gov/news/articles/2017-01-23-3 · https://www.azwater.gov/sites/default/files/media/Arizona%20Groundwater_Code_1.pdf · https://www.wrrc.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/awr_1980_apr_june_v80_n2_w.pdf | Fetched Sept 7, 2026 |
| 56 | Household wells exempt | Water Code §36.117: domestic and livestock wells (≤25,000 gal/day) exempt from district permitting | Texas Water Code §36.117 | https://texas.public.law/statutes/tex._water_code_section_36.117 | Fetched |
| 77 | Houston's aquifer recovered where the city switched to surface water | 1977–2024: largest water-level rise +215 ft (east-central Harris County); largest decline 360–397 ft (south-central Montgomery County, still on wells); subsidence in Regulatory Areas 1–2 ceased by the early 1990s; compaction of ~12 km³ (≈9.7 million AF of storage) is permanent | U.S. Geological Survey, Water-level altitudes and changes, Chicot, Evangeline and Jasper aquifers, Houston–Galveston region, 2024 (SIR 2025-5028); Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, 2025 Annual Groundwater Report presentation | https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/sir20255028/full · https://hgsubsidence.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2025-HGSD-AGR-Public-Hearing-Presentation.pdf | Fetched Sept 2026 (WS12) |
| 78 | North Texas aquifers recovered where cities switched | Paluxy levels recovering since 1976 after Euless, Bedford and Arlington moved to surface water; Dallas County groundwater use down more than half since the mid-1970s with rising levels; TWDB recorder 1819301 (Grayson County, Woodbine) 265.3 ft (1999) → 219.2 ft (2025), +46 ft | Mace et al., Water-Level Declines in the Woodbine, Paluxy and Trinity Aquifers of North-Central Texas (TWDB); Texas Water Development Board, Water Data for Texas, well 1819301 | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275832849_Water-Level_Declines_in_the_Woodbine_Paluxy_and_Trinity_Aquifers_of_North-Central_Texas · https://waterdatafortexas.org/groundwater/well/1819301 | Fetched Sept 2026 (WS12); replace the ResearchGate link with the TWDB report PDF before the byline goes on |
I. Costs
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Cost to replace every gallon vs replace-and-retire | Path A ≈ $198–434 B; Path B ≈ $56–79 B capital + ≈$1.4 B/yr retirement payments | TAP calculation (metrics.json): desalination $2,500/(m³/day); nuclear $12,000/kW; TWDB Unified Costing Model pipe/canal unit costs; retirement at $400/AF/yr | Assumptions listed on the site's Method page; unit-cost sources: https://www.twdb.texas.gov/waterplanning/rwp/planningdocu/2026/projectdocs/costingtools/UCM_Version3_UserGuide.pdf · https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/LCBConservation&EfficiencyProgram/LC_Conservation_Program_Letter_with_Enclosures.pdf | Order-of-magnitude; every input adjustable |
| 58 | First-of-a-kind reactor costs | Ontario BWRX-300 fleet C$20.9 B for 1,200 MW (≈C$17,400/kW); Natrium ~$4 B for 345 MWe (≈$11,600/kW) with up to $2 B DOE cost share | World Nuclear Industry Status Report; POWER Magazine | https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/Ontario-s-Darlington-SMR-project-to-cost-nearly-21-billion-significantly-higher · (see 42) | Fetched |
| 59 | Ogallala refill timescale | Specific yield ~0.16 over 36,497 sq mi ≈ 3.7 million AF per foot of rise; refilling the 44-ft average deficit ≈ the 170 million AF loss; ~a century at +1.7 million AF/yr surplus | TAP calculation from 13–14 and TWDB Texas Aquifers Study (2016) | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/groundwater/docs/studies/TexasAquifersStudy_2016.pdf | Computed |
| 60 | Pumping energy beyond the Caprock | Lift to Lubbock ≈ 5,200 kWh/AF vs desalination ≈ 4,300–4,900 kWh/AF | TAP calculation: 1.366 kWh per AF-ft (75% efficiency) × (3,200 ft + friction) | Method in WS7 brief | Computed |
| 79 | Delivered cost of Gulf water at the Balcones cities | Operating cost (energy at $90/MWh plus O&M) $600–800/AF at the coastal and Balcones zones (Edwards $694; Gulf Coast $604; Carrizo-Wilcox $651; Northern Trinity $721; Hill Country $789) and $1,000–1,150/AF on the High Plains and at El Paso. Capital for the replace-and-retire path ($56–79 billion for 1.24 million AF/yr of delivered water) amortized over 40 years at 3–4% = $1,960–3,225/AF; all-in ≈ $2,700–3,900/AF. Vista Ridge for comparison: $1,606/AF raw, ≈$2,200/AF all-in (row 35) | TAP calculation from the model in `metrics.json` (assumptions: desalination 3.5 kWh/m³; lift 1.366 kWh per AF-ft; power $90/MWh; O&M $200/AF; desalination capex $2,500 per m³/day; nuclear $12,000/kW; pipe $34.5 million/mile) | — | Computed Sept 10, 2026; order-of-magnitude |
J. Why now
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Proposition 4 | Approved Nov 4, 2025 with 70.42%; $1 B/yr to the Texas Water Fund FY2028–2047; ≥50% to new supply/SWIFT; marine desalination and "infrastructure for water transport and integration" eligible; financing of fresh-groundwater conveyance barred (except ASR) | TWDB, Proposition 4 FAQ; Texas 2036; Ballotpedia | https://www.twdb.texas.gov/financial/programs/TWF/doc/Proposition_4_FAQ.pdf · https://texas2036.org/news-analysis/proposition-4-passed-now-what/ · https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_Proposition_4,_Allocate_Portion_of_Sales_Tax_Revenue_to_Water_Fund_Amendment_(2025) | Fetched; re-verified |
| 62 | Edwards Aquifer Authority record | Created 1993 (SB 1477) after a federal Endangered Species Act ruling; cap now 572,000 AF/yr; pumping limits left ~2.6 million AF in the aquifer 1997–2014, ~1.95 million of it as springflow | EAA, EAA Act and History | https://www.edwardsaquifer.org/about/eaa-act/ · https://www.edwardsaquifer.org/about/history/timeline/ | Fetched |
K. The goal, measured
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | Nueces River cut off from its estuary | Zero flow at Calallen on 340 days in 2025 | TAP calculation from USGS gage 08211500 daily records | https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08211500/ | Computed |
| 64 | Edwards critical-period cuts | Stage 5 = 44% permit reduction; San Antonio Pool reached Stage 5 in May 2025 | EAA, Managing the Edwards Aquifer; EAA press release May 23, 2025 | https://www.edwardsaquifer.org/groundwater-users/manage/ · https://www.edwardsaquifer.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Increase-to-Stage-5-Permit-Reductions-San-Antonio-Pool-5-23-2025.pdf | Fetched |
| 65 | LCRA interruptible water to rice farmers | Cut off in 2012 and again 2023–2024; deliveries fell to 73,000–88,000 AF/yr in 2023–2025 | LCRA, Water Use Summary | https://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply-planning/water-use-summary/ | Fetched |
| 82 | Nueces Estuary inflow standard | TxEMP freshwater-inflow targets for the Nueces Estuary: MinQ 115,600 AF/yr, MaxH 138,500 AF/yr, with May–June pulses critical; Nueces at Calallen at zero flow 57.5% of days in the 2020s | Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, Freshwater Inflow Recommendations — Nueces Estuary; TWDB, Bays and Estuaries — Nueces; USGS gage 08211500 | https://tpwd.texas.gov/landwater/water/conservation/freshwater_inflow/nueces/ · https://www.twdb.texas.gov/surfacewater/bays/estuaries/nueces/index.asp | Fetched Sept 2026 (WS10) |
L. The partnership and the government's role
| # | Fact as used | Figure | Source | Link | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | ERCOT large-load interconnection queue | >400,000 MW in April 2026, ~89% data centers | KUT, How much water and power will data centers in Texas use? (Aug 5, 2026) | https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2026-08-05/texas-data-centers-water-power-energy-use-environment | Fetched |
| 67 | Texas data-center water use, now and projected | ~25 billion gal/yr today (~77,000 AF); 29–161 billion gal/yr (89,000–494,000 AF) by 2030 | Houston Advanced Research Center (Jan 2026); Texas Tribune (Sept 25, 2025) | https://harcresearch.org/news/texas-data-center-boom-could-consume-up-to-161-billion-gallons-of-water-annually-by-2030/ · https://www.texastribune.org/2025/09/25/texas-data-center-water-use/ | Fetched |
| 68 | Water vs power for 5 GW of data centers | IEA: an average 100 MW US hyperscale data center consumes ~2 million liters/day in total, over 60% of it indirect (electricity and chip supply chains); LBNL: US data centers used 66 billion liters of direct water in 2023, average WUE 0.36 L/kWh; Singapore's roadmap targets 2.0 m³/MWh WUE within ten years. For 5 GW at 90% capacity factor: ~39.4 TWh/yr of electricity; water ~30,000 AF/yr (IEA total-water rate) to ~64,000 AF/yr (2.0 m³/MWh). A 1 million AF/yr desalination system uses ~4.3 TWh/yr (row 40) | TAP calculation from IEA, Energy and AI (Apr 2025), Box 5.4; LBNL, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report; IMDA, Green Data Centre Roadmap (2024) | https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/de9dea13-b07d-42c5-a398-d1b3ae17d866/EnergyandAI.pdf · https://escholarship.org/content/qt32d6m0d1/qt32d6m0d1.pdf · https://www.imda.gov.sg/-/media/imda/files/how-we-can-help/green-dc-roadmap/green-dc-roadmap.pdf | Inputs fetched Sept 7, 2026; Singapore figure is a target, not a cap |
| 69 | Hyperscalers sign long-term firm nuclear power contracts | Microsoft: 20-year PPA with Constellation for the ~835 MW Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart), signed Sept 20, 2024, restart targeted 2027; Amazon: Talen Energy PPA expanded June 11, 2025 to 1,920 MW at Susquehanna through 2042 | Constellation press release (Sept 20, 2024) and Q2 2026 results (Aug 6, 2026); Talen Energy press release (June 11, 2025, SEC 8-K exhibit) | https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2024/Constellation-to-Launch-Crane-Clean-Energy-Center-Restoring-Jobs-and-Carbon-Free-Power-to-The-Grid.html · https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2026/08/constellation-reports-second-quarter-2026-results.html · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622536/000162828025030559/a20250611pressreleasebusin.htm | Fetched Sept 7, 2026 |
| 70 | Scale of AI build-out in Texas | Stargate reached "nearly 7 gigawatts of planned capacity and over $400 billion" nationwide (Sept 23, 2025) and passed its 10 GW goal by April 2026; Texas share ≈4.4 GW: Abilene flagship (~1.2 GW) plus a 600 MW expansion, Shackelford County 1.4 GW (Vantage), Milam County 1.2 GW | OpenAI, Five new Stargate sites (Sept 23, 2025); OpenAI, Stargate–SB Energy partnership (Jan 9, 2026); OpenAI, Building the compute infrastructure for the intelligence age (Apr 2026); Vantage Data Centers, Shackelford County | https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/ · https://openai.com/index/stargate-sb-energy-partnership/ · https://openai.com/index/building-the-compute-infrastructure-for-the-intelligence-age/ · https://vantage-dc.com/data-center-locations/north-america/shackelford-county-tx | Fetched Sept 7, 2026; corrected: 7 GW is the national figure, not Texas |
| 71 | Transcontinental railroad finance | Pacific Railway Acts of 1862 (12 Stat. 489) and 1864: ten alternate sections (6,400 acres) per mile; 30-year 6% U.S. bonds of $16,000, $32,000 or $48,000 per mile by terrain; Union Pacific debt repaid $58.4 million (1897–98) and Central Pacific settled for $58.8 million principal and interest (1899). Federal railroad land grants total 131.5 million acres (94.4 million to companies + 37.1 million to states) | National Archives, Pacific Railway Act (1862); Act of July 2, 1864 (13 Stat. 356); Annual Reports of the Secretary of the Treasury, FY1898 and FY1899; BLM, Public Land Statistics 2003, Table 1-2 | https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/pacific-railway-act · https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/treasar/AR_TREASURY_1898.pdf · https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/treasar/AR_TREASURY_1899.pdf · https://www.blm.gov/sites/blm.gov/files/pls03.pdf | Fetched Sept 7, 2026; "repaid with interest" holds for the Union Pacific and Central Pacific; smaller bond-aided roads were not fully repaid |
| 72 | Manhattan Project cost | Approximately $2.2 billion spent by the end of the war (project approved Dec 28, 1942; Aug 1945) | U.S. Department of Energy, Office of History, Gosling, The Manhattan Project: Making the Atomic Bomb (DOE/MA-0002, 2010), p. 19; DOE Office of Legacy Management | https://www.osti.gov/opennet/manhattan-project-history/publications/Manhattan_Project_2010.pdf · https://www.energy.gov/lm/manhattan-project-background-information-and-preservation-work | Fetched Sept 7, 2026 |
| 73 | Apollo-era NASA budget | NASA outlays $5,933 million of $134,532 million total federal outlays in FY1966 = 4.41% (peak); Apollo runout cost "approximately $25.4 billion" (NASA to the House Manned Space Flight subcommittee, March 1973) | OMB, Historical Tables, Table 4.1 (Outlays by Agency); U.S. House, 1974 NASA Authorization Hearings, Part 2, p. 1271 | https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2025-TAB/xls/BUDGET-2025-TAB-5-1.xlsx · https://li.proquest.com/elhpdf/histcontext/HRG-1973-SAH-0023.pdf | Fetched Sept 7, 2026 |
| 74 | Hoover Dam repaid from power sales | $49 million construction cost repaid by May 31, 1987 under 50-year power contracts | U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Hoover Dam FAQ — Power | https://www.usbr.gov/lc/hooverdam/faqs/powerfaq.html | Fetched |
| 75 | Central Arizona Project repayment | Repayment obligation $1.646 billion, 27% interest-free (agricultural), balance at 3.342%, final payment 2045 | Central Arizona Project, CAP Repayment Obligation | https://library.cap-az.com/documents/departments/finance/cap-wp-repayment-obligation-030623.pdf | Fetched |
| 76 | Water-replenishment surcharge arithmetic | $1–2/MWh on 39.4 TWh/yr = $39–79 million/yr; at $400/AF (Reclamation Lower Colorado conservation rate) that retires ~100,000–200,000 AF/yr of pumping | TAP calculation from rows 68 and 57 | https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/LCBConservation&EfficiencyProgram/LC_Conservation_Program_Letter_with_Enclosures.pdf | Computed |
How to use this paper
Every bracketed number in the article, e.g. [13], is a row in this paper. Rows marked TAP calculation are reproducible from the cited inputs and the method notes in the research briefs (WS1–WS12) in the project folder.
Corrections log
- September 7, 2026 (v1.0 verification pass). Fifteen rows that had rested on secondary sources were re-checked against primary records. Six changed materially: row 9 (Lubbock groundwater share re-sourced to the City of Lubbock 2025 plan, 77% for 2022); row 24 (Jacob's Well 1924 flow 23 cfs → 6.1 cfs per Brune; the "six feet in the air" image dropped; cessation record extended through 2026 from the USGS gage); rows 30–32 (Israel: the 1999–2002 decision sequence replaces a single 2002 decision; "86% of drinking water" → "over 80% of municipal water"; the 513 → 25 million m³ Kinneret pairing replaced with the Water Authority's own table); row 35 (Vista Ridge $1,606/AF contract price, ~$2,200/AF all-in, from the SAWS 2026 budget); row 70 (Stargate's 7 GW is national; the Texas share is ~4.4 GW). The article was revised to match.
- September 10, 2026. Row 9 corrected again. The city's own annual Water Quality Reports put groundwater at 64% (2021) and 61% (2025); the 77% figure in the 2025 Strategic Water Supply Plan is a drought-year 2022 mix. The Sept 7 correction over-reached: the original "about 61%" was right, and the article now says "about sixty percent," citing the 2025 report. Both documents stay in the row.
- September 10, 2026. Rows 77–83 added (Houston and North Texas recovery; delivered cost; brine discharge; total power; Nueces inflow standard; ocean volume vs Texas use). Intro no longer claims rows are numbered in article order. Version 1.1.